Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model assessment

Abstract Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change accelerate transformation sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Improvement Project (AgMIP) generate actionable for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century projections—likely be hotter, drier, more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders portray sustainable development scenario rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic this application is integration multi-modeling stakeholder engagement co-develop strategies. Distribution outcomes simulated climate, crop, livestock, impact assessment models smallholder crop livestock farmers in typical dryland agro-ecological zone Zimbabwe, characterized low erratic rainfall nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that Nkayi District, Western would threaten most farms, and, particular, those large cattle herds due feed shortages. Adaptation strategies promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, investment conducive market environments. switch legumes farming systems reduced vulnerability very poor as well resourced farmers. Overall, consistently addressed institutional failures motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies inclusive approaches. This yielded favorable than quick wins from commercializing agriculture.